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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 65

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LV 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model