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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to SF 24 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model