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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP