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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to LA 11 for no gain (0-B.Young).

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model