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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 51

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 17 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model