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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 29 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP