Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 29 – Houston Texans 18

(10:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-47-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model