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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 2 at the 17
Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 29
What Actually Happened
(13:02) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 14-J.Noel ran ob at JAX 12 for 5 yards.
The Three Options
GO
+2.98 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.14 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 17, worth +0.28 EP
KICK
+2.32 EP
- 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT
+0.88 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.88 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
