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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model