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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 16-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model