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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 9 at the 30
Detroit Lions 41 – Washington Commanders 22
What Actually Happened
(4:38) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+0.82 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.20 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP
KICK
+1.16 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 22% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
