4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 72

Washington Commanders 16 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DET 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for no gain (18-T.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model