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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 10

Detroit Lions 32 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP