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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 18

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond to WAS 8 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 6-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model