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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to IND 2, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model