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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.38 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model