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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to IND 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model