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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 12-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model