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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(14:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to IND 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-J.Downs to ATL 47 for 24 yards (84-F.Franks).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model