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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:52) 28-J.Taylor left end to ATL 7 for -2 yards (40-J.Bertrand).

The Three Options

GO +4.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model