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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model