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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 89

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ATL 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP