Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to IND 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-J.Downs to IND 28 for 18 yards (84-F.Franks). PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at IND 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.66 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model