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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Seattle Seahawks 44

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model