4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison (28-N.Pritchett).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model