4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SEA 38 for 12 yards (8-C.Bryant; 21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model