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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 60

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.61 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP