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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (53-D.Muasau).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model