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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 27

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model