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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 58

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model