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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 38 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to WAS 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 17 for 12 yards (32-Je.Reed; 41-C.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.60 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP