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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 38 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to WAS 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP