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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 46

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(5:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right guard to SEA 39 for 7 yards (99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.81 EP