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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 52

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model