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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at LA 13. 1-E.Forbes to LA 20 for 7 yards (22-R.Shaheed).

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model