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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 34 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-47-A.Ward. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 9 yards (87-D.Allen; 19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model