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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to LA 8 for -1 yards (91-K.Turner). NO-88-J.Stoll was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model