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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model