4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP