Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 56

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:38) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at MIN 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model