Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 79

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(7:58) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-18-I.TeSlaa.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model