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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 16-W.Reichard 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP