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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 84

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to MIN 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 42, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP