4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP