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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 65

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to MIN 25, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.99 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model