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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 2

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.87 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model