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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (6-B.Cook) [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model