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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 2
Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Buffalo Bills 28
What Actually Happened
(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.61 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.90 EP
KICK
+1.70 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
