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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at BUF 11 for 29 yards (24-C.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model