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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(4:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (24-C.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.49 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model